Mark the date. The 25th of September, 2009 Toronto marked then end (well nearly) of an era in the City. Miller time is over in Toronto with Mayor David Miller announcing he wont run again in next year’s Municipal election.
Miller sited family reasons, in particular a commitment he had made to himself following the last election that he would not seek reelection in 2010 and instead focus on his family and on raising his children.
Following the highly unpopular garbage strike Miller’s approval rating plummeted to an all time low of 29%. He has also been constantly and persistently attacked in the media as a tax-and-spend socialist, an aspiring autocrat and various other criticisms the larger media usually reserves for anyone who doesn’t fully bow to the privatization-driven style of governing.
For the next year, certainly there will be considerable attention paid to his legacy and his successor. Debates will rage about the effectiveness of community Policing and the replacement of Fantino with Blair, Regent Parks new building and long time residents, the St. Clair designated bus lane, the One Cent GST campaign and Transit City just to name a few of the numerous projects and campaigns over Millers 7 year stint.
As this task would be akin to writing a thesis paper, lets look at the possible challengers for expediency’s sake.
From the Left:
Adam Giambrone
A media regular, the Davenport Councillor is well accomplished. How many people can say they have been the President of a major Political Party, a two term Councillor and the Chair of the largest Transit system in G8 country by the age of 32?
Among the Councillor’s on the left side of the spectrum, Giambrone would be among the few who would probably send out feelers to gauge what support they could gather from Unions and other social groups that Miller and his allies worked closest with.
Glen Murray
Born in Montreal, Murray was elected as Mayor of Winnipeg in 1998 after many years of working within the various centre-left coalitions in Winnipeg municipal politics. The first openly gay Mayor of a major City in the World (until Paris elected a gay mayor in 2001), Murray is credited with reducing the City’s debt, improving its credit and building 5000 units of affordable housing.
He was defeated in federal election in 2004 when he ran for the Paul Martin Liberals, and has been working in Toronto as the head of the Canadian Urban Institute.
As a regular columnist in major papers, Murray can bring media-savvy, some Liberal party support, support from some major Unions as well as from the urbanites in the City core looking for someone with experience.
Murray is the sleeper in this race. If he throws in his hat, he could quickly become the front runner.
From the Right:
George Smitherman
The highly-influential downtown MPP has been eyeing a bigger job for quite sometime. So big are his ambitions that Premier McGuinty even went out and created a new portfolio for him – Minister of Energy and Infrastructure. However this is not enough to sedate the ambitious deputy Premier whose name has been mentioned in any discussion of the 2010 elections for the better part of a year.
Smitherman will certainly bring in a significant part of the Liberal machine and with Miller out of the running it would be difficult for McGuinty not to support him (and possibly get him out of his hair). While some view Smitherman as a progressive, it appears as though Smitherman could ally himself with traditional Tory’s in the Council chambers such as Case Ootes. This is telling of what ‘changes’ he might be bringing to City hall (read privatizations, P3’s, attacks on unions).
Sorry Liberal’s, your boy George gets put on the right side of the column on this one.
John Tory
John Tory can’t seem to catch a break.
After loosing to Miller in the 2003 elections, Tory went on to become the leader of the Ontario Conservatives trying to give them a new look and new orientation post-Mike Harris. Embarrassingly, Tory lost his own election in the 2007 elections and then again in the 2009 by-elections out in Halliburton.
Tory’s has been labeled as a ‘nice guy’, a non-threatening Conservative for a City that generally loathes the social, economic and foreign policies of the Conservatives since the Mulroney days. However, it should be remembered the Roger’s Communication executive has a long history in politics that includes being campaign chairman to Mulroney.
Karen Stintz
The only right-wing Councillor who has shown definite signs of wanting to run, Stintz has been an active member of Miller’s City Hall opposition. Prior to her being elected to Council in 2003, Stintz had no political experience but has since been one of the few highlights of the right in City Hall.
Stitz has been embarrassed on a couple of notable occasions, including charging $4500 for ‘speech lessons’ to Torontonians through her staff budget as well as asking the Provincial government for a grant to study political parties (Stintz had denied that she asked for this however documents showed that it was asked for). Stintz might surprise in the electoral run if she decides to go, however it would appear unlikely that she would run against Smitherman and even less against Tory.